Southern Illinois

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	100.0
Current RPI:	100
Expected SOS:	108
Current SOS:	108
Current Record:	19-13
Expected Record:	19-13
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	12-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-1
Current OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC Record:	7-5
Expected OOC RPI:	148
Expected OOC SOS:	177

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-13	100.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	A	66-81	W	100%
11-21	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	A	84-42	L	0%
11-25	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	A	81-73	L	0%
11-29	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	86-59	W	100%
12-2	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	76-58	W	100%
12-6	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	74-69	L	0%
12-9	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	H	69-75	L	0%
12-13	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	69-51	W	100%
12-17	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	71-61	W	100%
12-19	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	H	102-64	W	100%
12-22	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	N	86-64	L	0%
12-23	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	N	64-74	W	100%
12-28	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	53-56	W	100%
12-31	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	67-70	L	0%
1-3	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	65-63	W	100%
1-6	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	83-72	L	0%
1-9	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	68-62	L	0%
1-13	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	74-70	W	100%
1-17	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	79-65	L	0%
1-21	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	H	64-53	W	100%
1-24	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	82-77	W	100%
1-27	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	77-79	W	100%
1-30	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	67-78	W	100%
2-3	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	65-59	W	100%
2-8	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	76-68	L	0%
2-11	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	74-57	W	100%
2-14	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	81-80	W	100%
2-17	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	72-76	W	100%
2-21	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	56-75	L	0%
2-24	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	75-44	L	0%
3-2	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	N	67-63	W	100%
3-3	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	N	68-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Illinois	MVC	26.46	26.46	59.56	59.56	5.06	5.06
Illinois St.	MVC	5.70	5.70	51.72	51.72	0.20	0.20
Missouri St.	MVC	5.60	5.60	58.62	58.62	0.97	0.97
Loyola Chicago	MVC	4.21	4.21	83.33	83.33	2.81	2.81
Bradley	MVC	4.16	4.16	60.00	60.00	0.83	0.83
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.13	4.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	4.13	4.13	42.86	42.86	-0.59	-0.59
Evansville	MVC	4.11	4.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	4.10	4.10	40.74	40.74	-0.76	-0.76
Drake	MVC	4.08	4.08	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	1.79	1.79	39.29	39.29	-0.38	-0.38
Murray St.	OVC	1.77	1.77	82.14	82.14	1.14	1.14
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Nevada	MWC	1.69	1.69	78.79	78.79	0.97	0.97
Saint Louis	A10	1.67	1.67	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	1.66	1.66	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.61	1.61	58.06	58.06	0.26	0.26
Lamar	Slnd	1.61	1.61	55.56	55.56	0.18	0.18
San Jose St.	MWC	1.61	1.61	10.71	10.71	-1.26	-1.26
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.56	1.56	34.48	34.48	-0.48	-0.48
Louisville	ACC	1.56	1.56	59.38	59.38	0.29	0.29
Winthrop	BSth	1.56	1.56	59.26	59.26	0.29	0.29
Austin Peay	OVC	0.21	0.21	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.21	0.21	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	73.33	73.33	0.09	0.09
Chicago St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	3.33	3.33	-0.17	-0.17
Wyoming	MWC	0.18	0.18	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	Amer	0.17	0.17	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.15	0.15	16.67	16.67	-0.10	-0.10
Wright St.	Horz	0.15	0.15	71.88	71.88	0.07	0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.15	0.15	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	12.50	12.50	-0.09	-0.09
Fresno St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Georgia Southern	SB	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.11	0.11	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.10	0.10	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.10	0.10	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.08	-0.08
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.07	0.07	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
BYU	WCC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.07	0.07	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
La Salle	A10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.02	0.02	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00